I really do not want to be writing this the day before Thanksgiving with so much else to do. First: thank you all for your blessings and congratulations on our anniversary. May we have another 40! Second: to those who said we could come back to California and have a safe place to stay and for those who have repeatedly urged us to move back to the States, please understand that this is our home. We HAVE decided this is where we will spend our days until/unless the voice of the L-rd deep down inside our spirits tells us otherwise.

Third: this particular blogpost is written mostly for those who have reached out over the past 24 hours to tell us that they are so happy there is finally peace. That the ceasefire is an answer to prayer. That now we can live in relative quiet. I do not want to be patronizing, but the situation is very complex. It is not a peace deal. You are witnessing a game of 4-D chess played out by very cunning world leaders.

Last month, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister of Israel, Yoav Gallant, were issued arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity and for orchestrating a genocide. These two charges are absolutely false. Nevertheless, several world leaders including French President Macron gave statements saying the two would definitely be arrested if they ever set foot on French territory.

President Biden, also, is no fan of Israel, despite what you might read or hear on the news. We have endured numerous ceasefires and pauses in Gaza to our detriment. Arms shipments, contracted for, paid for, promised, have not been delivered to Israel in the middle of a war on seven fronts. Hostages have not been returned. In his last days of the presidency, Biden, in need of a foreign policy win to secure his legacy and to save it from the other disasters his administration has created, has carefully orchestrated a no-win scenario for Netanyahu.

In 2016, in the remaining weeks of the Obama administration, sanctions were passed against Israel. $6 billion was handed over to Iran, the head of the snake in the Middle East, and essentially a green light was given by the United States for Iran to develop its nuclear (weapons) capabilities. It created a very dangerous situation, and led to the arming and build-up as well as the emboldening of all Iranian terror proxies surrounding Israel.

Again, Israel is being held up against a wall, essentially being forced into a ceasefire. If Netanyahu did not agree to the deal, there were many possible scenarios that could have been taken. Biden threatened to introduce a resolution to the UN Security Council to sanction Israel unless they agreed to the ceasefire. The US is the sole veto vote in favor of Israel on the Security Council, so bringing a resolution against Israel would necessarily pass. No arms at all would be given to us. Extreme economic boycott of Israel would result. If it did come to that, the UN would unilaterally agree to create a separate Palestinian state on Israeli territory. The capital, Jerusalem, would be divided up, with the Palestinian capital set up there. These are orders that are irreversible on the world stage, in essence making Israel a pariah among nations. This is no exaggeration, nor is it conjecture. These are themes that have been rehashed over and over on the negotiations tables of the world.

To further ensure this, just this morning, the UN dismissed Alice Nderitu, its special advisor on genocide, for disagreeing that there is an Israeli caused genocide happening in Gaza. “ Beyond Ms. Nderitu’s fate, the damage here includes defining genocide down. The word has become a weapon of political propaganda that will erode its moral authority when it’s needed to describe genuine horrors.” -The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board. Nderitu, an accomplished mediator and negotiator, has served at the UN since 2020. She explained in a paper and address at the UN that while the conflict has caused significant loss of life, Israel’s actions aim to dismantle a terrorist regime, not to exterminate an ethnic group. She noted that the IDF has made great effort to minimize civilian casualties, while Hamas uses civilians as human shields. She clashed with Secretary General Guterres’ narrative and was fired. This puts Israel in an even more precarious situation.

Now to the ceasefire agreement. The carrot on the stick was that the necessary arms… more Iron Dome defensive missiles, ammunition, bulldozers would finally be delivered. Israel, fighting a multi front war, is currently running very low on ammunition. 89% of Israelis polled by the Times of Israel yesterday stand United against

this ceasefire agreement . That is an overwhelming majority of the population. Over 19,500 missiles and rockets have been fired at northern Israel from Lebanon since 8 October, 2023. Approximately 190 million square meters of land have been burned due to Hizbulla rockets and drones. Over 200 Israelis have been injured and 115 Israelis have been killed on the northern front, of which 42 were civilians hit by rocket fire and shrapnel. Over 86,000 Israelis have now been displaced from northern Israel due to ongoing Hizbulla missile and drone attacks. Approximately 9,000 buildings and 7,000 cars have sustained some sort of damage, 1,000 of which have sustained serious damage, This is a war that was not started by Israel. Yet Israel was on the cusp of victory with Hizbulla. Perfect timing to declare a ceasefire- when full victory is within reach.

Since the surge by the IDF into Lebanon this past October, numerous terror tunnels have been found deep underground. It was discovered that Hizbulla and the IRGC were planning an imminent invasion of the North very similar to the Gaza invasion of Israel. The plan was up to massacre as many people as possible and overtake all the cities to Haifa. They held the threat of 200,000+ missiles aimed not only at places in the North, but also ICBMs that could reach to Tel Aviv and beyond. The threats were not just perceived, but real.

Israel had been dismantling the entire terror structure within Lebanon. Weapons caches and rocket launchers have been found, photographers, categorized and destroyed. Hideouts and tunnels blown up. In southern Lebanon, once a Maronite Christian area, now taken over by terror groups, whole villages containing armaments, weapons manufacturing facilities, rocket launchers, and terror tunnels, have been demolished. The head of Hizbulla, Nazralla, was elaminated along with scores of top-level operatives. Just yesterday, Israeli troops reached the Litani River, which was where Hizbulla was supposed to be contained according to UN Resolution 1701. The IDF troops conducted extensive raids on Hizbulla strongholds, uncovering and destroying dozens of rocket launchers, hundreds of rockets and weapons depots hidden in the mountains there. Over the past year, many IDF soldiers gave their lives to mitigate the terror that put civilian lives at risk.

All throughout yesterday afternoon and late into the early morning hours, Hizbulla bombarded Israel indiscriminately into the North, into the center of Israel and Tel Aviv, all along the coast, and into the West Bank communities and communities towards Israel’s Eastern border. Sirens were going off constantly as drones and missiles whizzed overhead. Booms rattled the homes and the land putting residents on edge. Most schools in the North had been closed since October, classes being held by Zoom. Residents of the North were warned by Home Front Command to stay indoors in shelters. The terrorists to the North were trying to get off their last payloads before any deal could be agreed upon. Israel responded by striking their weapons depots and headquarters in Beirut suburbs after giving 20 minute evacuation warnings. Myriad of Air Force sorties deep into Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley targeted terrorists and their hideouts.

Yesterday, the Israeli Security Cabinet voted on a joint U.S./French initiated ceasefire agreement with Hizbulla. The deal set a 60 day pause on all hostilities between Israel and Hizbulla. The IDF will remain in southern Lebanon for 60 days gradually pulling back to the Israeli border. The Lebanese army (not Hizbulla or IRGC or terror groups) and UNFIL will take over the IDF sites, patrol and guard. These two entities were put in place in 2006 by resolution 1701 to ensure that Hizbulla operatives would not come near the Israeli border in the 6 mile buffer zone. It was a total failure. Both parties stood idly by as the terror organizations became entrenched in southern Lebanon. So much for lasting security, as it was never enforced. So why trust these peacemakers now?

According to the deal, there will be no border buffer zone in southern Lebanon, meaning the residents of southern Lebanon will be free to return to their homes up to the border with Israel. The real danger here is that Hizbulla and IRGC operatives will take off their uniforms, dress as civilians and enter in to retrench, regather, and rearm. Just five minutes ago I checked my news feeds. Despite IDF warnings advising Lebanese civilians against returning to the villages during the early stages of ceasefire, live television footage shows insurgents and Hizbulla operatives driving in the town of Khiam near an IDF tank. This is less than 1 mile from Israel’s border near the Israeli town of Metulla. Warning shots were fired by IDF and a report has been filed, but so far nothing has been done. Insurgents have been filmed mocking the ceasefire and taking selfies near the manned Israeli tank. This is preposterous!

The Lebanese government (without an elected leader forover two years now) is to oversee all arms purchases and production, meaning terror groups will not be able to have access to new weapons. This is a weak government at best, who, in the past, has succumbed to Iranian bribes and threats and has allowed for a Shi’ite takeover of a once strong Christian government. Israel is to expect them to be able to control the flow or production of arms to their soldiers only? Think about this….

The US will head the international body overseeing the deal’s implementation and France will also sit on this panel.

A side letter between Israel and the United States reads that Israel has the right to act whenever it sees an immediate threat from Lebanon and can enforce the ceasefire if Lebanon and the international forces fail to do so. If Hizbulla violates the agreement by moving south of the Litani River, Israel is to notify the international oversight committee regarding the nature of the violation, The language is quite ambiguous as to who will then do what and when.

There are separate agreements between Israel and the United States; France and Lebanon; Lebanon and Hizbulla and Iran, Hizbulla, France and the US. Worked into this ceasefire deal are also secondary agreements between the Shi’ite Muslims, the Christians and the Druze communities in Lebanon. There are so many parts and little details to uphold, that no way in hell can this be truly monitored.

This war cannot end until Israelis feel safe to return to their homes, businesses and communities near the Lebanese border without the threat of attack, invasion, or missile strikes. Mayors of the border cities as well as the IDF soldiers that are serving in Lebanon are absolutely furious over this agreement for ceasefire. It is a deal that is doomed for failure, at least where Israel is concerned.

There are those that say it is just for 60 days, that Netanyahu and the government are just biding their time until Trump can come on the scene January 20. In the meantime, Turmp is being closely monitored himself. He can have no communication on foreign policy or with foreign leaders according to the provisions of the Logan Act. There can be no prior negotiations before he takes office. His hands are tied until he is inaugurated. I can only hope the team he has assembled, which appears to be very pro-Israel, will let us finish the job of rooting our evil to be able to restore peace to the region for both Israeli and innocent Lebanese civilians.

The only path forward for Israel is to assert national sovereignty. It must not be swayed by nor dependent on foreign entities for approval or for military aid. Israel must learn to develop its own weapons and rely on the strength of its own military and government, fighting its own battles, setting its own borders. For now, we wait cautiously. We pray that by this appeasement we will have at least some favor in our push in Gaza and in negotiations to get the 101 remaining hostages back. It is a tenuous period.

An acknowledgment to Dalya who pointed out my mistake in yesterday’s blog about the antisemitic violence in Chicago. I will issue a full correction in my next blog…until now, my pumpkin pie and sweet potatoes are calling me back into the kitchen.

Have a blessed Thanksgiving weekend.